Electoral Vote tally based on prediction data from intrade.com
Intrade is a prediction market where "prediction shares" are bought and
sold. The price of a "share" is related to what the expected out come
of the condition will be. All shares trade from $0 - $100. If the
event occurs as your share predicts your shares are valued at $100. For
example "Will it snow in NYC on December 25th 2008?" You may buy
a share of this prediction at $40, if it does snow on Christmas you
receive $100 for your $40 investment. However if it doesn't snow you
get nothing. Shares may be bought and sold at "market value" anytime during the run-up to the event. So if the temperatures have been unseasonably warm leading up to Christmas the share value may drop to say $30, at which point you may decide to sell and cut your losses.
The following tally is based on the individual state prediction for the
candidates. If the current share price for Mr. Obama is greater than
$60 that states electoral votes are placed in his column. If the share
price is between $50-$59 it is considered too close to call. And
finally anything below $50 is awarded to Mr. McCain.
The data will be updated daily for as long intrade allows me to scrape their
data.
Data from Tue Nov 4 12:15:02 GMT 2008
