Sunday, November 02, 2008
The Superbowl for Geeks
Lisa is concerned and thinks I'm obsessed ... maybe so .... I'm glued to intrade and pollster.com ... and I've come up with this: an election night scorecard to have handy as I sit and watch the returns come in.
The list is sorted by percentage-Margin-of-victory from the 2004 election .... the closest races up top ... I'm expecting this is where all the activity will be ... I've also included columns for which way the state went in 2004 and what the polls are saying about that state this year.
This election is by NO MEANS a done deal. I'm still concerned about Pennsylvania, and I'm not convinced about any red to blue conversions.
It boils down to this: For an Obama victory he needs to HOLD all Kerry blue states PLUS add either one "jewel" like Ohio or Florida or pick up a "set" like New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado .. or Virginia and Iowa. In short 18 more electoral votes than Kerry.
I think it's going to be a long night ....
#posted by Rob Roschewsk @ 8:50 AM