Sunday, September 07, 2008
Mega Election Mashup
My recent fascination has been the concept of prediction markets, the trading of shares based on the likelihood of an events outcome. Admittedly there is a fine line between "investing" and "wagering" ... some have said playing the stock market is a form of legalized gambling ... but to borrow a quote from the fictional character Gorden Gecko: "Greed is, for lack of a better word, good"
People will say anything in a survey, but when it comes to parting with ones hard earned cash they might be a little more cautious.
Intrade is a prediction market where shares of predictions can be bought and sold. I have been watching them for a while but my curiosity peaked recently when shares of Sarah Palin began to trade furiously at least 12 hours before any media broke the story of her selection as Mr. McCain's running mate.
Using data from Intrade for the individual state elections I have developed this mashup of what the current electoral vote tally looks like. Based on this data ... it's going to be a nail biter with about 3 states deciding the race.
#posted by Rob Roschewsk @ 7:47 AM
Comments:
OK ... after watching this data for a few days ... maybe I need to re-think my tally process ....
# posted by 
Rob Roschewsk @ 6:59 PM